Work in Progress

 

Are China's "Leftover Women" really leftover? An investigation of marriage market penalties in modern-day China (based on Second Year Paperwith Loren Brandt, Hongbin Li, and Laura Turner) 

[Working Paper 613] [slides]

A recent trend in Korea and Japan sees college-graduate women marrying later and at lower rates than less-educated women. In China, "leftover women" have also become a top policy concern. This paper finds, however, that China's higher-educated urban women attain marital outcomes more similar to those in the US than in other Asian Tiger countries: marrying later, but ultimately at rates comparable to those of less-educated women. Furthermore, for 1990-2009, we quantify marriage quality using the classic Choo-Siow (2006) estimator and find large returns to marrying later but minimal direct higher-education effects. Using the Choo (2015) dynamic estimator, we project future marriage rates to remain stable among the higher-educated and decline for lower-educated women.